UK RAIL FARES

I read a letter in Metro yesterday that was so good I want to quote from it. It was from Julian Self of Buckinghamshire.

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So the Association of Train Operating Companies reckons it will always offer "a range of fares to suit every pocket", does it?

Given it (rail) is already massively subsidised by the public purse at a far higher level than the old, state-owned British Rail ever was, and that it has`raised fares above inflation ever since privatisation in the mid-1990s, I rather fancy I know whose pockets these fares are designed to suit. It certainly isn't those who depend on trains to get them to their places of work.

It seems rail companies and successive governments have done their very best to reduce train overcrowding in peak hours ... by making the entire rail experience as unpleasant and uncomfortable as possible.

... At a time when all public services are struggling to provide more for less, it seems these railwaymen (and I use the term in the same spirit as highwaymen) are intent on providing less for more.

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Good man yourself, Julian Self. The overcrowding I can vouch for, as I am at present experiencing it a daily basis between Bristol, where I live, and Newport, where I am working for the next couple of weeks.

... and another thing: in case you don't believe J. Self's assertion that the subsidy is higher now than before rail was privatised in the UK, I have read the same claim in "The Economist", a magazine whose grasp of facts I tend to trust.

SHOCK HORROR: FREEZING WEATHER IN THE WINTER

Yes, I admit it: mild winters had become the norm in the UK for several years. Thus we were caught out last winter, when we had a prolonged spell of snow and ice. There was lots of controversy then about a lack of preparedness by the public sector. “Lessons have been learned”, we were told. But were they?

“The weather in Britain? Changeable.”

The best old joke about the weather here is attributed to Bob Hope, born British but naturalised American: “If you don’t like the weather in Britain, just wait five minutes.” Oldies but goldies.

Not only is our weather changeable (note that I say weather, as distinct from climate; I’m not sure that we have a climate) but there are considerable local variations. Because of these two facts, I am always amazed that we devote some much broadcast time to weather forecasts, particularly on the national stations where the forecast is often short, generalised and therefore of no value. If you want to know the weather where you are, tune in to a local station, or check online. Or you could just do what I do; look out of the window. It works for me.

Cold weather in December? Who knew that could happen?

I admit it; we have had cold weather and snow much earlier this year than is normal. But here we are in December; where I live there has been very little snow but because of the freezing temperatures the roads and pavements are quite dangerous. Despite that, I have seen no evidence of salting or gritting. As I wrote in my Twitter feed, where is our usually-mighty “Elf and Safety industry (so powerful in respect of trivia, it seems to me) when we need them?

“Health and Safety? Don’t get me started”. Oh, I already have.

I live in Bristol, allegedly the second-richest city in the UK (based on GDP per capita, which might not be the best measure but so far it seems to be the only one we have); a country that’s supposed to be the sixth biggest economy in the world (again, based on GDP; not sure I care that much about that kind of international league table, but most people think it’s important). However, we can’t seem to organise the supplies and infrastructure to keep roads and pavement safe and traffic flowing if it should by chance freeze or snow in December. (who knew that could happen?)

We already know that only half of the salt that was promised for this winter has even been delivered into storage. Couldn’t we even get that right?

I don’t usually quote Jeremy Clarkson but it fits here: “How hard can it be?”

Next time?

OK, this doesn’t happen very often (in the southern half of the UK anyway) but it does happen, it generally happens in the winter, and when it does, we end up in a shambles. Then in a couple of weeks it’ll all be over and “lessons will have been learned”. Until the next time.

North-south divide

Maybe the fact that the freeze affected the south-east will be a blessing; politicians will perhaps start to get serious about planning to avoid winter transport chaos. When wintry weather only affected the north and Scotland, they could ignore it.

Now it’s time to go out for a walk and play “spot the gritting lorry”. A game for all the family.

PAYDAY LOANS: RECENT MEDIA COVERAGE

Lots of stuff about payday loans in the media just recently. I’ve mentioned on my Twitter feed that the subject was featured in “Broadcasting House”, one of my very favourite programmes on BBC Radio 4, yesterday morning.

I thought that in several ways the programme presented a balanced view. Rather than simply saying “these loans are terrible and should be banned because of their outrageously high interest rates”, at least one interviewee said that the amount paid (and it’s generally small, as it’s generally on smallish loans) could well be less than what the bank would charge you for going into (unauthorized) overdraft.

A fair point and another reason why people would be tempted. I’d previously said in my last post (at the back end of last week) that these kinds of loans could be considered in emergency, provided you also put a plan in place which ensures that you repaid the loan at the next payday .

High interest charge … or a bank charge? Maybe both

However, there is a comprehensive article on this by Matthew Wall in ‘Moneywise’ magazine (November 2010). The article points out something else, which adds a further danger to what’s already known about these kinds of loans.

He says: “Lenders usually take your debit card details as part of the application process so they can take out the full repayment come payday. They’ll do this whether you have the money in your account or not, potentially pushing you into overdraft and triggering bank charges if you don’t.

In this situation it’s a double whammy; you’ve paid the payday loan company’s interest rate (which is well known to be very high) but then you are stung with the bank change anyway.

Matthew Wall goes on:

If you can’t repay the full amount you can ask to defer the loan, but they’ll usually insist you at least pay the borrowing charges.

There may also be a deferral fee or a charge incurred for arranging the new loan. So it’s not hard to see how cash-strapped borrowers can quickly become submerged in debt.”

Want to know more?

1. To see the whole of Matthew Wall’s article, go to: http://www.moneywise.co.uk/cards-loans/personal-loans/article/2010/11/03/beware-offers-easy-credit

2. My book “Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way” is available on the Smashwords site. To sample (first 20% free) or to buy at only $3.99, go to http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/22886

PAYDAY LOANS: FRIENDS IN NEED OR WOLVES IN SHEEP’S CLOTHING?

Earlier this year, during an interview on Heart FM, I was asked about payday loans: would I advise anyone who was especially cash-strapped (for example as a result of Christmas), to take out one of these loans? This is a tricky matter: anyone considering any such loan must have exhausted all other possibilities.

Payday loans, usually for sums up to £1,000 ($1,500), are known to carry very high interest rates. Those rates could be affordable if it's the only game in town AND if the loan really is repaid quickly, i.e. on payday, but if it's rolled over then the problem starts. However, they are marketed as being instantly available, which of course is very attractive when things are tight.

Advantages

So the attractions are:

• Instant availability, even if you have a poor credit record
• Lack of bureaucracy, with a simple application method
• The fact that it’s cash: a cheque is less useful if you have to pay it in to a bank account with a maxed-out overdraft, though of course cheque / cash converter shops have foreseen that problem.
• The fact that it’s local, with a collector who probably lives near you.

If there is no alternative, and if the sum borrowed is repaid at the next payday, then paying that interest (high rate but small sum) is better than having to default on the mortgage or a credit card bill.

Disadvantages

The problem arises, of course, if the sum isn’t paid quickly. Then, of course, it will become more and more difficult to repay, because of that very high interest rate. I could publish a table showing how the sum owing would build up at those very high interest rates: but that would be very depressing for you and for me.

Should you do it?

In the radio interview I said that if anyone was in a situation where they saw no alternative solution, then they should take the loan, provided they immediately got help from one of the debt advice charities, for example the CAB (Citizens Advice), or CCCS (Consumer Credit Counselling Services), or National Debtline, or one of the many local “not-for-profit” debt advisory services, and put together a plan. Step one of that plan must be to repay the payday loan as a first priority.

I still stand by that advice.

Those interest rates, by the way

In order to check my facts after that interview, I found a website that lists the top 5 payday loan providers (the “top 5” ranking is by “rough estimate of lender’s approval rates”). I found the APRs of these lenders varied from over 990% to over 2300%. Eye-watering stuff, if you can’t repay quickly.

For extra info see the MoneySavingExpert website, for example this post:
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/loans/2010/01/loan-sharks-leaving-victims-in-debt-all-year . That article talked about interest rates (APR) “up to 1500%”. As you can see above, I found some rates to be even higher.

Credit Unions: an alternative

Credit unions are an alternative and much cheaper source of short-term finance that people in this situation could look at: an alternative, in fact, to high-street lenders as well as to payday loans.

The local one here in Bristol, for example, is at http://www.bristolcreditunion.org/; they offer loans from £100 to £7,500 ($150 to $11,250). Their website says: “By law credit unions cannot charge any more than 2% per month on the reducing balance of a loan. This represents a maximum interest rate of 26.8% APR (Annual Percentage Rate), and that is the most you will ever pay on your loan.”

Worth checking out? 26.8% sounds better than those payday loans.

Taking advice

If you are in debt, and whether or not you are considering a payday loan, I always bang on about the need to get help as soon as possible. That should preferably come from an independent, impartial (i.e. not-for-profit) advice service such as the local CAB (that’s the Citizens Advice Bureau, for the benefit of any readers of this blog who are not in the UK) or CCCS (Consumer Credit Counselling Service) or National Debtline. Then you need to formulate a plan with the help of that advice, and inform the creditors that is what you're doing and ask them to freeze interest while that's happening.

Many creditors will agree to that, but if you don't ask you don’t get. Many debtors spend too long in denial and they don't communicate with their creditors, which makes the situation worse. I know: I was one of those.

In fact my book’s subtitle could even be “Learn from my mistakes”.

Christmas is coming!

At the top of this post I mentioned Christmas. This is a good time to say that one way of avoiding payday loans is to cut down spending. Don’t cut down on the fun but do cut down on the presents!

As I say in my book: “Christmas is not an emergency.” (it comes every year)

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"Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way", is now available as a multi-format eBook at Smashwords to sample (view or download the first 20% free) or to buy at only $3.99. Go to: http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/22886

Website: www.back-to-the-black.com

Blog: http://backtotheblackblog.wordpress.com

DEBT COLLECTION: OFFICIAL GUIDELINES IGNORED

An interesting article by Jenny Little (“Moneywise”, Nov 2010) reminds me of a problem that can cause great misery for personal debtors. The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has a ruling that prohibits harassment of debtors. Moreover the OFT clarifies what constitutes harassment by publishing guidelines; however, many lenders ignore them.

According to the article, in some cases lenders have even claimed to be unaware of the guidelines, though it’s the OFT that issues those same lenders with their consumer credit licences.

To see the article, go to: http://www.moneywise.co.uk/cards-loans/credit-cards/article/2010/10/25/credit-card-demons-revealed

Little says that “growing numbers of people struggling with credit card payments complain of creditors bullying them with menacing letters, doorstep visits and threats of court action or repossession.

“In public, credit card and debt collection firms pay lip service to official guidelines protecting consumers, but staff are given financial incentives to recover debt, provoking the sort of harassment that makes millions of debtors' lives a misery.”

Official guidelines

OFT guidelines require lenders to negotiate with third parties, e.g. debt management companies, and say that debt collectors must give advance notice of visits. Debtors can also request not to be contacted at work.

Debt collection firms pretending to be bailiffs, or falsely threatening criminal proceedings, also risk being fined or having their credit licence revoked.

The guidelines in full:

Physical/psychological harassment: putting pressure on debtors or third parties is considered to be oppressive. Examples of unfair practices are as follows:

• contacting debtors at unreasonable times and at unreasonable intervals
• pressurising debtors to sell property, to raise funds by further borrowing or to extend their borrowing
• using more than one debt collection business at the same time resulting in repetitive and/or frequent contact by different parties
• not ensuring that an adequate history of the debt is passed on as appropriate resulting in repetitive and/or frequent contact by different parties
• not informing the debtor when their case has been passed on to a different debt collector
• pressurising debtors to pay in full, in unreasonably large instalments, or to increase payments when they are unable to do so
• making threatening statements or gestures or taking actions which suggest harm to debtors
• ignoring and/or disregarding claims that debts have been settled or are disputed and continuing to make unjustified demands for payment
• disclosing or threatening to disclose debt details to third parties unless legally entitled to do so
• acting in a way likely to be publicly embarrassing to the debtor either deliberately or through lack of care, for example, by not putting correspondence in a sealed envelope and putting it through a letterbox, thereby running the risk that it could be read by third parties.

Source: Office of Fair Trading, “Debt collection guidance: final guidance on unfair business practices.”


Lenders ignoring guidelines

But it seems the guidelines carry little weight with the lenders, according to Little. Heather Keates, chief executive of Community Money Advice, says: “Card firms are jittery and increasing interest rates. Creditors now go in hard from the outset.”

Citizens Advice (CAB) gives the example of one client’s recent experience. A 42-year-old single mother, she was struggling to keep up with a £7,000 credit card debt on her £589 take-home pay. She made the minimum payments but, when she defaulted, her bank began to phone her up to six times a day, even at work.
When the CAB intervened, the bank’s representative claimed to know nothing of the OFT guidelines and blamed the repeated calls on an automated system.

Automated dialling systems

Little has found that the use of automated dialling systems is commonplace and can result in customers receiving multiple calls every day. Some people resort to buying an extra pay-as-you-go mobile just to avoid harassment.

Alex MacDermott of Citizens Advice said: "It's always better to talk to the card provider; otherwise your number will stay in the automated dialler, which will keep ringing. But the tone of some calls can be very threatening."

Mention of telephone harassment and automated dialling reminds me of my own experience when I was in debt. That’s why I say: “try to avoid talking to creditors by phone. Don’t ignore them; respond to the messages … but in writing. Let all your incoming calls go to voicemail, if you are single-minded enough to do so.”

While some providers employ in-house debt collection, others 'sell on' debt to a third party. The Consumer Credit Act requires that they first issue a default notice to customers who have skipped payments to inform them which company has taken on the debt but in my experience this rarely happens.

The OFT has criticised debt collection agencies for “making frequent phone calls, threatening court action and not describing the process correctly", and has also concluded that many default charges are unlawful. It says that £12 is the maximum that anyone should be penalised for missing a payment.
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What to do

As I say again and again in my book: get help, especially if you are being harassed. Apart from the three major national debt advice charities Citizens Advice (CAB), Consumer Credit Counselling Service (CCCS) and National Debtline, there are also Community Money Advice and Debtors Anonymous, as well as Consumer Action Group, which is an online support network. All of these are easily located online. There are also local advice centres, too numerous to mention.

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“Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way” is now available to sample or buy, as a multi-format e-book, at: http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/22886

HOW DO WE MEASURE GROWTH?

I loved the contribution by Caroline Lucas, our only Green MP, on “The Week in Westminster” (BBC Radio 4) yesterday (13.11) morning. I am not a supporter of her party, nor am I that well informed on the green agenda, but every time I hear her speak I am impressed. She talks a lot of sense; moreover in a courteous way, even when confronted with the leading questions beloved of interviewers, such as this one: “ … are you not coming to the conclusion that you alone can make no difference …?”

The Commons had been discussing economic growth; Ms Lucas wanted the debate to be wider but felt she was the only MP who believed we should look at the quality of growth. She went on to say: “How useful is GDP as a real measure of that growth? Are we better off?”

I agree totally. To take solely the relationship between GDP and jobs, I wrote in a blog post on 27 October, when a higher-than-predicted monthly GDP growth was in the news: “However … a growth in GDP does not necessarily – and quickly – improve the lot of the majority of people in this country, particularly those who are already in debt or who face losing their jobs as a result of the recently-announced spending cuts. Our economy is still rather dependent on relatively non-labour-intensive sectors, e.g. financial services, so today’s good news is “necessary but not sufficient”.

Can you measure happiness?

So Caroline Lucas asks, “are we better off?” Back in “the good old days”, i.e. before the credit crunch and the recession, there were several studies (including those quoted in Oliver James’ famous book “Britain on the Couch”) showing that British citizens’ self-perceived levels of happiness (or contentment or well-being, call it what you will) had not increased over the previous 50 years even though, by every financial measure, we were indeed all greatly “better off”.

OK, let’s leave aside this hard-to-measure or even impossible-to-measure quality of happiness, or maybe the spiritual wealth of the nation if you like. Are there other measures than GDP with which we could assess the economic wealth of the nation? I don’t know the answer but I’d love to hear your views.

UK plc as a company: turnover? profit? What else?

For example: years ago, when I was in the chemical industry, I remember an Irish customer of mine saying, as his annual financial results were published: “Turnover is vanity; profit is sanity.”

Isn’t the GDP of a country somewhat analogous to the turnover of a company, being the sum of its outputs? So what might be the equivalent of profit for “UK plc”? What measures of “added value” could we track?

Obviously our government is supposed to do more than deliver profit to shareholders, so how best can it – and we – measure how good a job it is doing? As Ms Lucas’s question implies, GDP is not the only measure.

“Answers on a postcard”. As they used to say, back in the day.

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For a link to Caroline Lucas’s interview on “The Week in Westminster”, go to: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00vv0dv#p00c4mrs
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For information on “Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way”, go to www.back-to-the-black.com

UK PERSONAL DEBT TRENDS

My thanks to the charity Credit Action for their latest credit data.

Previously, on my blog …

The last time I blogged about this, I reported that the “write-off rate” on consumer lending by UK monetary financial institutions to individuals increased further in the second quarter 2010 to 7.4%. In that quarter, UK banks and building societies wrote off £3.47bn, most of which was credit card debt.
Secondly, Credit Action reported that average household debt in the UK was £8,590 (excluding mortgages). They went on to say that “this figure increases to £17,896 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.”

That second statement puzzles me; I don’t agree with the idea of giving a second average that includes only those who have debts. An average is an average, including the highs and the lows and everything in between. If we exclude those with the very lowest debts (i.e. zero), then we should also exclude all those with the very highest debts, i.e. all of the “outliers”.

By the way, if one included mortgage debt, then average household debt in the UK was then about £56,690.

The report concluded that total UK personal debt at the end of August 2010 stood at £1,428bn, a slight increase.

Now for the update

The latest Credit Action report, which I received last week, still gives the second-quarter figure for the write-off rate on consumer lending, i.e. 7.4%; presumably the third-quarter figure is not yet available.

Total lending in September 2010 rose by £0.4bn; secured lending increased by £0.1bn in the month; consumer credit lending increased but only by £0.3bn. (a step-change from pre-recession days: total lending in Jan 2008 grew by £8.4bn)

Total consumer credit lending to individuals at the end of September 2010 was £216bn. The annual growth rate of consumer credit increased 0.3% to 0.6%.

Average household debt in the UK is ~ £8,562 (excluding mortgages). Again, they add, “this figure increases to £17,838 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.” Again, I find that second figure rather artificial.

Total average household debt in the UK (including mortgages) is approx £57,737; that’s an increase but only a very small one.

Your debt or the country’s debt?

If you thought that figure was highish, the report goes on to say that “if you add to this the March 2010 budget report figure for public sector net debt (PSND) expected in 2015-16 (excluding financial interventions) then this figure rises to £109,960 per household.” Sorry, but that is rather a jump of logic; the PSND is not my personal responsibility, although I would indeed be worried if I thought Mr Osborne would send the bailiffs round to ensure I cough up my share of the UK debt. Thus I feel this excellent report is slightly compromised by making the raw data appear worse through this addition.

And another thing … that last calculation is based not on current government borrowing but the projection for 2015-16; a lot can happen before then. “Things can only get better”, as the song says; at least I hope they will. Let’s hope, in particular, that the PSND in five years is lower than that prediction.

Back to the present

Finally, and if we deal solely in current and personal realities, total UK personal debt at the end of September 2010 stood at £1,455bn; as you can see, that’s a further slight increase. Based on their latest report, the people at Credit Action can still make the same statement that I quoted in my book “Back to the Black”. In their words: “Individuals owe more than what the whole country produces in a year.”
It is sincerely to be hoped that this worrying statement will be short-lived, and that GDP will continue to rise and personal indebtedness will start to fall.
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To find out more about my new book “Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way”, go to www.back-to-the-black.com

IS ECONOMICS A SCIENCE?

Last Sunday I was listening to “Broadcasting House” (aka “B.H.” to fans) on Radio 4; one of the highlights of my listening week.

First up, there appeared to be a wonderful opportunity to find out what two heavyweight economists thought of the current situation and of the government’s policies. They were Lord Desai and the current professor of the subject at Cambridge, whose name I’ve sadly forgotten and probably won’t get around to checking. Sadly, the discussion didn’t convince me that economics, famously called the dismal science, is really a science at all. Their responses to a simple question of what tests we should apply to the new measures to decide their possible efficacy were predictably obscure; at least they were to me. No matter how brilliant these men must be, their communication skills left much to be desired. You’d think the BBC could have wheeled out two better communicators. As there are now chairs for the public understanding of science, and as economics is a sort-of-science, there is a strong case for creating a post of Professor (at the University of Life, of course) for the Public Understanding of Economics. Neither of these two luminaries would have got my vote.

B.H. presenter Paddy O’Connell, however, does get my vote, as an interviewer able to mix gravitas and humour according to the weather conditions. (I’m not joking; he even interviewed people queuing for the grand re-opening of the pier at Weston-super-Mare, during a downpour) I particularly liked the way he chaired the segment where guest reviewers cover the Sunday papers. Sunday’s panel comprised Craig Brown, whom I found disappointing for such a well-known columnist; there was a novelist whose name has escaped me, and the find of the day, Emma Harrison, who runs a recruitment agency called A4E, specialising in helping long-term unemployed people back into work; a worthwhile purpose and seemingly a delightful person to boot.

While many other people on the show, including her fellow-panellists, seems too be recycling the gloom-and-doom aspects of the media’s response to the UK government’s cuts package, Emma Harrison was a lone voice proposing a more positive approach. As the person who clearly had the most experience of working with the people who potentially could be among the worst affected (if the cuts are indeed regressive – see an earlier post) it was encouraging to hear her say that the glass-half-empty approach that tends to be favoured by our media (bad news sells papers, dear boy) can be totally counterproductive. Well said Emma; she’s the only guest on the whole show whom I shall look up on Google.

Finally, a piece about corgis was narrated by Tom Conti. Maybe he needs the work these days but why choose a Scots actor, seemingly exaggerating his native accent, to read a not particularly funny (IMHO) monologue in the person of a dog that is famously Welsh. (This last item is from my “I think you’ll find …” Department of Pedantry). Maybe there was some comic subtlety about this that passed me by.

Finally, I heard a new definition: an optimist is someone who picks up the crossword with pen in hand.

Despite my gripes on this occasion, B.H. still rules for me.

ECONOMY GROWING FASTER THAN EXPECTED BUT PERSONAL DEBT WORRIES PERSIST

The UK's economy grew at 0.8% between July and September according to official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). That growth is double the 0.4% expected by most analysts.

"This is the second major GDP growth surprise in a row and suggests that the UK economy is more resilient than many had feared," said James Knightley, economist at ING.

"The government will no doubt take this as a sign that the private sector can fill the gap created by public sector cuts, but with consumer confidence, hiring intentions surveys and housing activity data all softening we remain cautious."

The key is that phrase “hiring intentions”. I am a glass-half-full person, so I like to focus on the facts that the GDP increase is double what was expected and that it’s the strongest third-quarter figure in a decade, according to the BBC’s Stephanie Flanders.

However … a growth in GDP does not necessarily – and quickly – improve the lot of the majority of people in this country, particularly those who are already in debt or who face losing their jobs as a result of the recently-announced spending cuts. Our economy is still rather dependent on relatively non-labour-intensive sectors, e.g. financial services, so today’s good news is “necessary but not sufficient”.

Until those “hiring intentions surveys” also show a rise, there will still be large numbers of people going into bankruptcy or taking out an IVA (a Protected Trust Deed in Scotland).

I too was in that situation not so long ago. However I found another way, which I detail in my book “Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way.”

What is also encouraging is that construction seems to be showing the strongest gains in the last couple of quarters, as this would lead to job creation more than some other sectors.

To quote Stephanie Flanders again: “There is still plenty to worry about in this recovery: much of it beyond our shores, and beyond the government or the Bank of England's control. But for today at least, I think we're allowed to join the cabinet in a sigh of relief.”

Here’s a link to that Stephanie Flanders piece: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/10/good_news_on_gdp.html

If you want to know more about how I personally escaped the threat of bankruptcy and IVA and found another way, go to www.back-to-the-black.com

THOSE CUTS: PROGRESSIVE OR REGRESSIVE?

Are the measures announced in HM Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review progressive or regressive, i.e. do they favour the poorest or the richest, relative to their respective incomes? Or are they totally fair, as claimed? You might well think that this debate has been flogged to death, so I won’t add my inexpert economic analysis; however the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) now states their view that they are on balance regressive.

That’s also the view of Tim Harford, presenter of “More or Less”, one of my favourite radio programmes. Here’s a clip of what he said on the radio on 21 October: http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9113000/9113265.stm

(BTW, I found that clip easily, from the very user-friendly “Today” website. The programme is of course a National Treasure, though that other NT, Sandi Toksvig, says: “I love the Today programme: twenty minutes of news, crammed into three hours”)

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Nowadays, consumer confidence is taken as an even more important barometer of the economic health of the UK than is any index of industrial output. That’s why it was rather depressing to read this morning that confidence is at its lowest level for more than a year, according to a monthly confidence index published by the Nationwide Building Society. This drop is, of course, in anticipation of the spending cuts to be revealed in the Comprehensive Spending Review next week.

Experts at the British Retail Consortium predicted that the figure would be “volatile” until after the impact of the cuts was known, which seems to me “a PhD in the bleedin’ obvious”. However when we actually look at the numbers, I wonder how meaningful is this “index” and the media coverage it’s had. The September index was reported by the BBC to have dropped by 9 to 53 in September. Thus a drop of 15%. In a month. By contrast, it rose 10% in August. Can both figures really be true? Of course I realise that recent announcements of planned cuts could have prompted a drop this large; however I have looked at the Nationwide website and it’s clear that this index fluctuates greatly almost every month. It was only 45 a year ago; moreover it was 100 only a couple of years before that, at a time when the credit crunch was already well underway. Surely a more meaningful measure of confidence is actual retail sales?

This is clearly a case for study by BBC Radio 4’s excellent programme “More or Less”, which looks more deeply at numbers in the news, especially when they might have been misrepresented (Can that really happen? Shock, horror!). Naturally, most of us know only what the media tells us about the impact of the cuts. For example, I thought I read at the start of the process that the spending reductions would be spread over 4 years or so; however, we never hear that fact nowadays. Whenever the media talk about, say, 25% cutbacks in departments that are not being ring-fenced, the stories give the clear impression that the cuts and the resulting job losses will be more or less immediate.

A related example: one of our allegedly serious papers carried an interview last week with a single mother who would be seriously affected by the recent decision to restrict total benefits payments to UK average income. The article clearly stated that Ms X would have to consider a move out of London, away from family and friends, “within the next couple of months”. However the benefit limit decision will not be effective till 2013; a fact that was not mentioned in the story. Why not? Could this omission be because bad news sells papers? Am I being too cynical?

Here’s my point: the tendency of many media outlets sometimes to oversimplify and usually to paint the worst possible picture of any new development adds further to the stress on people who are already in debt or who think they might be in the future. It’s important to put things in perspective and that’s something that’s hard to do after reading some of our doom-and-gloom media coverage. As that old French philosopher said (at least I think he was a French philosopher, but my information comes from the media), “my life is full of great disasters, most of which never happened”.

If you have concerns about your own debts, read my book “Back to the Black” about the necessity of putting your financial situation in perspective before deciding your response to any demands from your creditors; or any piece of bad news you read in the press.

BBC RADIO BRISTOL INTERVIEW NOW ONLINE

My interview on BBC Radio Bristol is now online at the "Audioboo" site: http://audioboo.fm/michaelmac43

IN PRAISE OF MANUFACTURING

A most interesting piece on the Today programme this morning, (about 07:15, if you want to find it on iPlayer) about the importance to our economy of the manufacturing sector in general and of small businesses in particular. I switched on part-way through but the interviews I heard were with companies in the Jewellery Quarter in Birmingham; they were honoured in this way, not doubt, solely because the Conservative conference is in the city right now. The excellent presenter (James Naughtie, I think) and his interviewees together made the point that successive governments and the banks have failed to provide the environment where manufacturing could prosper (it’s now a shamefully small proportion of GDP) but that fact has been known for years. But their final clincher was one that had previously escaped me, obvious though it may be to you, dear reader: other things being equal, (which they never are) every new job created in manufacturing will contribute to the creation of far more jobs in supporting businesses than any new job in the service sector. Maybe this fact has always been obvious to the German government and that’s why both their small / medium business sector and manufacturing have been supported by more than words and maybe that's why their economy is both more healthy and more sustainable than ours.

We’ve often been told about the “trickle-down” theory, i.e. that increased wealth at the top will trickle down to those lower in the food chain (does this justify those massive banking-sector bonuses? Discuss). Maybe it works, maybe not, but this morning’s message about the crucial importance of our manufacturing sector could be called the trickle-round theory. Or the ripple theory. Whatever we call it, I hope that Messrs Cameron, Osborne and Cable were listening to the radio at the same time as I.

Sadly, after that excellent segment normal service was resumed; a piece about Sainsbury’s increased profits followed by one about the will-they won’t-they sale of Liverpool Football Club. The football story was repeated at least four times, I think, between 7:30 and 9:00; the manufacturing story was not. Perhaps that shows where our national priorities lie. No wonder the country’s in the same kind of debt crisis as Liverpool FC but, unlike them, we don’t have an American white knight on the horizon.

UK DEBT STATISTICS SHOW WRITEOFF RATE INCREASING

The latest UK debt statistics, courtesy of Credit Action, show two interesting trends.

Firstly, the “write-off rate” on consumer lending by UK monetary financial institutions to individuals increased further in the second quarter 2010 to 7.4%. In this quarter, UK banks and building societies wrote off £3.47bn, most of which was credit card debt. In the 12 months to the end of August, they wrote off £10.9bn of loans to individuals.

Secondly, they reported that average household debt in the UK is ~ £8,590 (excluding mortgages) but this figure increases to £17,896 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan. That’s a drop from £22,000 when I last looked, about 6 months ago, which shows clearly that people have been paying off debt.

By the way, if we include mortgage debt, then average household debt in the UK is now about £56,690.

The report concluded that total UK personal debt at the end of August 2010 stood at £1,428bn, a slight increase. Based on that, the people at Credit Action still make the statement that I quoted in my book “Back to the Black”. In their words: “Individuals owe more than what the whole country produces in a year.”

"BACK TO THE BLACK" - RADIO INTERVIEW

Yesterday (23 Sept) I did an interview about “Back to the Black” during Graham Torrington’s mid-morning show on BBC Radio Bristol. I can’t attach the file here, as it is too large, but the interview is available on the BBC site until 29 Sept.

"BACK TO THE BLACK" HAS ITS OWN BLOG

Last week I flagged up the fact that my new book "Back to the Black" is now available in a variety of e-formats on the Smashwords site: http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/22886

I also announced that the book has its own website: www.back-to-the-black.com

Today I have also set up a dedicated blog on the Wordpress platform: http://backtotheblackblog.wordpress.com where I'll be posting any new developments with the book, plus news related to debt, and inviting discussion.

Watch that space!

PAYMENT PROTECTION INSURANCE - RECENT MEDIA COVERAGE

In my last post I announced a new website dedicated to my eBook, "Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way".

You’ll find the site at http://www.back-to-the-black.com/

In the book I refer more than once to Payment Protection Insurance (PPI), about which I had a healthy scepticism based on personal experience. Ten years ago, my IFA persuaded me to take out PPI; after several hefty premiums, I discovered that, being self-employed, I would not have been able to claim from the policy.

I complained of mis-selling, the policy was cancelled, I was promised a refund of premiums paid. I can’t recall ever getting that refund.

That was then. More recently, following lots of adverse media coverage, the whole PPI area was said to have been tightened up. Therefore, and in the interests of balance, I asked a practitioner who knows the subject to give me a current overview of the product. This he did and I included his comments in full within my book. Here’s what he said:

My view of PPI is:

Very good product, where appropriate. Especially in these tough times.

BUT

1. Ensure product is specific to your circumstances - self employed / agency work / contract work etc.

2. What is non-pay period - some policies don’t payout for first 3 months!

3. ONLY go for monthly based policy, not single premium - unless it is at wholesale cost, with no commission attached.

4. Check what you have to provide to claim - sign on/ monthly certificates / doctors notes etc etc

5. Check how long payment lasts.

It is a valuable product on credit cards, as the charge is only based on the amount outstanding, so during good times and if you clear your card, it costs nothing.

Valuable on a mortgage, but again do research, don’t just take the mortgage provider’s contract. Search around.

The sale of PPI has changed significantly over the past year or so, as many past products are now being claimed against as mis-sold, so providers are more cautious in 'stitching up' the client.

As always, look at the small print and take notes, and send written confirmation of your understanding to the provider of any conversation you have had.

But is the matter resolved? This month’s edition of the magazine “Moneywise” has an article entitled: “The 10 financial products to ditch now”. (the front cover and the web version were even more forthright: “10 rip-off financial products.”) Here is the piece:

PPI, which promises to cover the repayment on a debt if you lose your job or are unable to work due to illness or accident, appears to be a prudent way to protect yourself from huge debts.

But, unfortunately, the banks' hard sell of PPI meant that thousands of people ended up with a totally worthless product. "They were selling PPI to the self-employed," says Peter Staddon (see below), "although they would never have been able to claim for unemployment."

However, don't let this put you off all plans. "Some policies are good. Look for those sold through brokers as they can arrange cover that suits your needs," he adds.

Alternatively, consider income protection insurance, which can pay until you retire, and is often more comprehensive.

SAVING: The figures vary but, according to which? PPI could add an additional £2,000 to £3,000 to a £7,500 five-year loan

USELESSNESS RATING: There are better protection products available

* Peter Staddon, by the way, is the head of technical services at the British Insurance Brokers’ Association. His view should therefore be taken seriously.

PPI can provide valuable protection but beware, especially if you are self-employed.

Finally: the same issue of Moneywise confirmed that new customers with Lloyds Banking Group will not be “ripped off by the sale of PPI (their wording, not mine) alongside loans, mortgages and credit cards after the bank announced it would stop pushing the product. Lloyds is the first of the banks to take this step”. A most welcome step.

NEW WEBSITE FOR "BACK TO THE BLACK"

I’ve just launched a new website dedicated to my eBook, "Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way".

On the new site you’ll find lots of information about the book; about yours truly; and about the reasons why I came to write “Back to the Black”. There’s a selection of case studies from the book; and a link to the eBook retail site where you can view or buy the book.

You’ll find the new website at www.back-to-the-black.com

"BACK TO THE BLACK" NOW AVAILABLE

My book, "Back to the Black: how to become debt-free and stay that way", is now available as an eBook on the “Smashwords” site.

Ten years ago I ran up heavy debts when my business collapsed. I had started a training business seven years before, after a long career in the chemical industry. When my enterprise ran into difficulties, credit was easy, so I could fund it with loans and credit cards. In the short term this plugged the gap; I thought things would improve. They didn’t.

So I closed the business down, looked for a job, and tried to work out how to solve my debt problem. My first intention was to pay off everything I owed but I knew it would take time. I didn’t think I could get the debts down to a manageable level in less than five to ten years; my creditors would not give me that kind of time.
My financial adviser recommended bankruptcy. I had by then sunk all my assets into the business, so he said that there could never be a better time for me to go bankrupt. For many reasons I didn’t want to do that although after a fairly short period, I would have been debt-free. The advantages and disadvantages of bankruptcy – and its modern alternative, the IVA (Individual Voluntary Arrangement) – are set out in detail in the book; recent developments have taken away some of the former stigma and the practical disadvantages of these solutions.
However, I decided instead that I would negotiate a deal with my creditors myself. This approach I call “Plan C - negotiate a deal” - and you’ll find it in Chapter 10 of the book. I made an offer to all my creditors for full and final settlement. Eventually all of them, apart from the taxman, agreed to the deal.

At the time, I thought my debt problem was insurmountable. It was a very stressful period. However, I was lucky to have the support of a debt advice agency and other professionals and friends.

I came through the experience; I learned a lot.

I was not, and am not, happy with the fact that I was unable to pay my debts in full. After the event, however, I decided to write up what had happened, partly for my own benefit. I even thought that maybe it would make a couple of newspaper articles. If other people with debt problems could benefit from reading about my mistakes and what I’d learned, then something good would have come out of it all. Those articles eventually grew into a book – “Back to the Black” – which sets out what I call the three main strategies for dealing with debt. It also contains lots of advice for dealing with debt-related stress and with the demands of creditors.
In summary, my book is based not on a theoretical approach to debt, but on painful experience. I hope that you can benefit from reading about that experience. If you have debts, whether they are consumer debts or business debts or both, the principles for dealing with them are the same. The experiences you are going through, though unique to your situation, will have much in common with mine.

Go to www.smashwords.com/books/view/22886 if you'd like to know more.

PAXO, PAVO AND PLAID

A TV documentary a couple of weeks back during BBC4’s “Italian Opera” series, taken together with a TV interview during this year's election campaign, reminded me of the importance of the principle of “noblesse oblige”, even when applied to the aristocracy of the media world.

The recent documentary was about Luciano Pavarotti. I will declare an interest in that I once saw him live, nearly 20 years ago at Covent Garden. True, he was said to be past his electrifying best even then. True, he was in “Un Ballo in Maschera” (my favourite opera ever since), where the standout male aria is given to the baritone rather than the tenor. True, his handlers spirited him out of a back door to avoid us autograph-hunters on a cold February evening. Despite all that, we all knew that we were in the presence of greatness. Anyway, back to the TV documentary. (Not before time, I hear you cry). A procession of notables from the musical world had extolled Pavarotti’s virtues, not only as one of the pre-eminent voices of his or any other generation but also as probably the most successful populariser of opera. Then up came the face of Jeremy Paxman with a recording of an interview he’d done with the larger-than-life tenor, only a few years before the latter’s death. In answer to a question about when he’d retire, Pavo said that he’d sing for as long as his voice held out. He clearly didn’t believe in retirement, for which I applaud him. Then Paxman, with his trademark sneer, said, “Some people think you should have given up years ago.” To which Pavarotti, with more grace than his interviewer, replied, “Some people are probably right.” A smack in the mouth would have been an alternative response and could have been forgiven.

Journalists are paid to expose the truth from dissembling politicians and, less usefully, to puncture pomposity in celebs of all kinds. Pomposity that I hadn’t observed on the part of this rightfully celebrated guest, by the way. If the public still wanted to hear that voice, even past its best, and the singer wanted to oblige, then who was Paxo to imply that both parties should be denied their respective pleasures? This short but unpleasant interlude reminded me that it’s possible to behave like an ignorant lout, despite having the benefits of a fine mind and fine education; possible but unforgivable.

All of which led to an unconnected but satisfying episode during the election campaign. Paxman on that occasion introduced his guest as follows: “Eurfyl ap Gwilym is Chief Executive of the Principality Building Society. In that exalted position (did I detect more of the trademark Paxo sneer at this point?) he is Plaid Cymru’s economics adviser.” What followed was a delight, as the said adviser reduced Paxman to a splutter. He had contested one of Paxo’s assertions with some data, to which the interviewer responded, “I don’t have those figures in my head”.

“Well, you should have. Do your homework; you have the report there; look up the data.” Or words to that effect. At that point, to my surprise, (and maybe to his credit) Paxman did indeed start to shuffle through his papers, considerably discomfited. That discomfiture was not lost on the audience: the YouTube clip of the interview was apparently one of the most popular of the election campaign. Not the most important episode of that campaign, I know, but … hubris? Pride comes before etc? Both of the above.

ACTING CHALLENGES

An afterthought about that showing of “Old Age Pillagers” that I went to.

I've been discovering over the past couple of months that when acting for the camera, rather than on the stage, less is more. With "OAP" I had the extra challenge that, although my character was fairly central, he didn't say much. I’m not used to that, so I found it hard. Luckily I got lots of tips from the director (Violet Ryder; watch out for her) and from the guy I was playing against, Barrie Palmer. Barrie is a vastly more experienced actor than I; he passed on a tip from Anthony Hopkins, one of my favourite actors. If I remember it correctly, the advice was something like: “don’t act, just be, just think; the audience will see it in your eyes.” Nice work if you can do it; I've discovered it's not as easy as he makes out. I’m studying Hopkins.

“Old Age Pillagers” is a 10-minute short: see http://www.oldagepillagers.webs.com

PORTFOLIO PEOPLE

I love that term, “portfolio working”, which is described as “a lifestyle in which the individual holds a number of jobs, clients and types of work”, all at the same time. For examples, look no further then the originator of the term, Charles Handy himself. The Irish economist and best-selling author began his career with Shell Petroleum (a background he shares with Vince Cable, though the latter spent rather more time there) and then the engineering group Charter Consolidated (now Charter International) before diversifying his activities and living the freelance life. He was subsequently co-founder and Professor of the London Business School but I feel sure those were for him part-time jobs.

He is quoted (www.scribd.com ) as saying, “I told my children when they were leaving education that they would be well advised to look for customers, not bosses.”

To gauge Handy's style these days, as a portfolio person, read the first few lines of his autobiography: "Some years ago I was helping my wife arrange an exhibit of her photographs when I was approached by a man who had been looking at the pictures. ‘I hear that Charles Handy is here,' he said. 'Indeed he is,' I replied, 'and I am he.' He looked at me rather dubiously for a moment, and then said, 'Are you sure?' It was, I told him, a good question because over time there had been many versions of Charles Handy.” He then adds, “… not all of which I was particularly proud”. That remark seems typical of the self-effacing nature of the man because, if there is such a thing as a philosopher of management and organisational behaviour, then it is he. Handy has been rated among ‘the Thinkers 50’, a list of the most influential living management thinkers in the world; in 2001 he was second on that list.

I myself discovered portfolio working relatively late. For most of my career I drew a salary working for organisations, ending up as MD of a chemical sales and marketing company which was a subsidiary of a large multinational group. Later I started a training business (but I’ll draw a veil over that for now, as its eventual failure led me into debt) and have since had a mix of mostly part-time jobs and freelance work. Nowadays, if people ask me what I do (the standard opening when meeting a stranger, at least in our British culture), I could reply, as Handy himself would recommend: “Well, that depends. I have a variety of activities. Would you like to hear about my writing? My acting and voiceover work? My radio presenting and after-dinner speaking?” Of course I don’t say that – it would be thought unforgivably “naff” here in Britain – but it would be a good conversation-stopper, if needed.

I wish I had discovered the portfolio way before. People have always been doing this – in fact many women who want or need to combine paid work and family have no choice but to do so at certain times in their lives – but the name, at least, is new.

More celebrated examples of portfolio people can be found, including Anthony Charles Lynton (aka Tony) Blair. Not so long ago he had what I think can accurately be described a “full-time job in an organisation”. To be precise, he was running a country with what was at the time the sixth-largest economy in the world. He decided a change would be good – it was about the time we were overtaken by Italy to become the seventh-largest economy but I am sure that was coincidental – and now he is doing so many different things I hesitate to list them for fear of being out of date. He looks as if he is enjoying the portfolio life too.

There’s another word for portfolio people nowadays: “scanners”. The man who is most associated with this term in the UK is John Williams, a classic example of someone who has gone from the corporate world to being a portfolio person. He used to be a senior consultant at the major accounting and consulting firm Deloittes but he now says that he focuses his time on “helping creative people figure out what they'd like to do with their life, how to make good money out of it and how to have some fun at the same time.”

Williams says of his life since making the switch that he has been “fortunate to achieve some remarkable things for someone so unfocussed and naturally lazy”. A nice mix of pride and self-deprecation.

He quit that job at Deloitte and has since “consulted independently for blue-chip organisations such as the BBC; turned a full-time job offer into a 3-day a week freelance gig that paid me the same income; cold-called The Guardian to win my first piece of paid writing, with no prior experience; and, over the past three years, have developed a meeting of a handful of people in a bar into the successful ‘Scanners Night’ event with up to 70 paid attendees. (www.scannercentral.co.uk )

A recent two-page spread in The Times (http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/public/sitesearch.do?querystring=john+williams+scanner&sectionId=342&p=tto&pf=all ) enthuses about him: “John Williams … aims to revolutionise the way we think about work. He says: ‘The rules are changing. My mum’s belief was that work was to be endured, not enjoyed, and her generation didn’t really have a choice.

‘There’s never been a better time — all the tools are there on the internet for you to get paid for what you enjoy. Previously, setting up a business needed premises, funding — but today you could set up your own eBay shop in an afternoon. You need to find the sweet spot between the things you love to do and doing them in a way that solves people’s problems for them — and there is your means of earning a living.’”

Williams concluded, according to The Times: “Now I have a portfolio career consisting of mentoring, corporate creativity workshops, copywriting, blogging ... I set my own hours, choose my own co-workers and alternate my place of work between my home, my garden and the local café.”

I got the impression that he prefers his new life to the corporate rat-race.

MORE THESPIAN INTERLUDES

That student film "Old Age Pillagers" has now been finished and a week ago I went to a screening of all the graduate films of International Film School Wales. It was pretty scary seeing oneself on the big screen (in HD too) at Cineworld in Newport, but I thought that the team had put together a rather professional production.

Since then I've done another student film for a UWE project. Tomorrow I'll be having my first viewing of the finished product "Warm fuzzies, cold pricklies", which is being shown as an installation; also "One More Kiss Darling", which we shot in March: both as part of graduate week of the film studies department, at the Bower Ashton campus of UWE.

OLD AGE PILLAGERS

That’s the name of the student film I’ve been cast in. It was inspired by the real-life story of two Scottish pensioners who entered into a life of petty crime, apparently just for fun. Move the action to Porthcawl on the Welsh coast and the result will be a 10-minute short, which is a final-year project for students at the International Film School Wales, part of the University of Wales. We started rehearsals last Friday and shooting begins on 22 March. I have been impressed with the professionalism of the production; the whole project has already been running for several months. Details in www.oldagepillagers.webs.com

THESPIAN INTERLUDE

Having taken part in the world-famous – well, Bristol-famous – Hotwells Panto in March last year has reawakened an interest in acting. Thanks to that entirely positive experience, I was inspired to audition for, and was lucky to get a part in, Theatre Raconteurs’ production of Richard III just before Xmas. Directed by the visionary Tristan Darby – watch out for the name, folks – that was the most professional production I’ve ever been involved in, by a country mile. Meeting and working with so many really talented and in most cases very experienced actors could not fail to be a learning experience, so I decided to audition for a couple of short (10-minute) student films. I’ve been lucky enough to be cast in both of them, moreover. “One More Kiss, Darling” is being shot in Bristol in mid-March; the title comes from a Van Halen record in the 70s, used in the soundtrack of a famous film whose identity I have forgotten. And “Old Age Pillagers” is being shot just afterwards, in Porthcawl on the Welsh coast.

MR MICAWBER LIVES!

Yesterday I was spending an evening with friends when one of them said he’d just started to read the free edition of “Back To The Black”. I asked what he thought of it so far and he said what friends do, that he liked it. However, he said, there was one thing missing. Naturally, I wanted to know what was missing.

“The bit where you advise people to work out how much they can afford to spend … and then spend a little less.”

Barry was right; I hadn’t specifically advised people to do that. However, I had instead quoted the dictum of Mr Micawber. In case you’re not a fan of Dickens, Mr Micawber was a character from “David Copperfield”, who famously said, "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen shillings and sixpence, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds, ought and six, result misery."

My friend is a very well-read guy but the message was that I should perhaps have been a little more direct with the advice.

GIGS AND CLOAKS

Last night to the Metropolis in Bristol (UK), a beautifully restored former cinema that is home to Jesters Comedy Club. Last night, though, was a special treat for fans of Steely Dan. The performance by their UK-based tribute band Nearly Dan was great, though the sound was nothing like as good as it had been at their previous Bristol venue, the rather scruffier but atmospheric Fleece.

My only other gripe about last night: on a cold night in January, everyone arrived well wrapped up. Those of us who’d arrived early enough to get a seat at the small number of tables were OK; they could drape their jackets, coats etc over the backs of their chairs. For the majority, who had to stand, no such luck. They had to dump their coats on the floor, keep them on, or pile them on one of the few empty chairs.

That prompted a thought; is it only in the UK that we seem to forget that in winter the weather can get cold? Is it only in the UK that venues will welcome punters and the money they’ve paid for admission and will spend over the bar, but provide nowhere for them to put their coats? Theatres generally have a cloakroom but cinemas don’t. As for pubs, I know a few (old-fashioned) pubs where there are jacket-hooks and coat- hooks on walls and under the bar, but they are an exception.

End of moan. It was indeed a great evening. Highpoint, for me and many others, was a superb trumpet solo in an extended version of “Hey Nineteen”. I was keen to find out the name of the player; the band’s website indicates it could have been either Phil Nicholas or Steve Parry. Sadly, due to the imperfections of the venue’s sound quality and / or my hearing, I couldn’t make out the name when he was credited by the leader. Memo to self; must get my hearing checked out again.